Trading event contracts carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose the entire amount you put at risk. Do not risk money you cannot afford to lose.
An event contract settles at either its full value or at zero. A position that looks close to correct and a position that is badly wrong can settle identically — at nothing. There is no partial credit and no recovery after settlement.
Exchange fees, the bid-ask spread, and the price you actually get filled at all reduce returns. A strategy that looks profitable before costs can be unprofitable after them. Fills at the price you see are not guaranteed, and in thin markets you may not get filled at all — often precisely when you most want to be.
The service depends on exchange feeds, venue data and infrastructure that can fail, lag, disconnect, or report incorrectly. Figures shown may be stale or erroneous. We display data freshness where we can, but you should never assume any number on the site is current or correct at the moment you act on it.
Every read the desk publishes is a statement about probability measured over history. It is routinely wrong on individual windows — that is what a probability means. Most windows produce no call at all. A run of correct reads does not mean the next one is correct, and a measured edge can decay or disappear without warning as market conditions change.
Where any backtested, simulated, modelled or otherwise hypothetical result is shown, it is marked as such, and:
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Live, forward results are shown separately from historical ones wherever both appear. Where we track a record, losses stay on the board alongside wins.
Nothing published is financial, investment, trading, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nothing is personalised to you. We do not guarantee any outcome, any level of accuracy, or any profit. See the Terms of Service.
Every decision and every order is yours alone. You should consider your own financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed professional if you need advice. It is your responsibility to confirm that event-contract trading is lawful where you live.
We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi or any other exchange, venue or data provider referenced on this site. All marks belong to their respective owners.